Daytona '500' Predictions

And so the big race is upon us. If it seems like the 2008 NASCAR season just ended it's only because it just did. Keeping with the latest trend among NASCAR fans the first point I raise in my new racing blog is a criticism. The Cup racing season is just too long. We've been back and forth to the great racing buffet and now we have a big league stock car racing tummy ache.

More on that in a future blog but now back to THE race. Based on the races of the past few years at the superspeedways we should be in for an entertaining show. Esthetics aside, the criticism that dogs the new car doesn't seem to follow it to Daytona or Talledega. The boxy nature of the car lends itself to tighter packs and tighter packs lend themselves to more blood-thirsty crowds. Or maybe blood-thirsty isn't the right phrase. I mark these races on my calendar and I'm not a happy camper if I miss one. But what makes a good race? Competition. And you can't get more competitive than when you have the entire field under a blanket. I expect to see the field accordion as the race rolls on. Cautions will bring the pack together. Green flag periods or little slips and slides mid-pack will have them strung out. As those green flag periods go on the draft will take over and that long string of bees will become an angry swarm. I don't think we'll have to worry about seeing too much of the passing-free freight train that seemed to be the bane of the superspeedways in the mid- to late-nineties. ...that's my recollection anyway. Remember how ticked off Earnhardt was in 2000 with the lack of passing after the '500'?

Ideally we'll see a slow build toward an exciting finish. That's a broad definition of my perfect race. You'll need some bent sheet metal along the way (but not the Big One.....the very worst drawback to plate racing. I don't go in for what does or doesn't constitute a 'real' fan but something doesn't seem right if you sit there waiting for half the field to be wadded up in one fell swoop). I'm neutral with regards to the Green-White-Checker rule. I can understand the point of view of the traditionalists who argue that races have ended under cautions for years and that's just the way it should be. And the action junky in me wants my Darlington/Busch-Craven finishes each and every time. Ideally, a race ends with exciting, action-filled just-to-the-brink-of-a-yellow-but-not-any-further laps. The trend at the plate tracks is towards chaos but, if the Shootout means anything, they can somehow keep it together.

Speaking of the Shootout, aside from the closing laps, I think last weekend's race shows us what the cars and drivers are capable of but don't expect to see the same pace in the '500'. And neither should you look to the '150's for a preview for Sunday. Those races were so far removed from the Shootout. There were lots of different objectives on display on Thursday. Among the bulk of the teams the idea was not to do anything stupid. For a few those races were their '500's. And for a few more it was a Shootout. So the big one on Sunday will consist of elements of both with the Shootout mentality gradually coming into play around the 450 mile mark. There will then come a point, and don't we all love it, when dreams of dollar signs and glory trump live-and-let-live and points racing.

Predictions

Relying on my many years of dozing in front of the telly on Sunday afternoon's I'll now make my predictions for a handful of drivers on Sunday. In no particular order:

Tony Stewart. Fat Elvis. The man is racing. It should be that whenever anyone looks up race car driver in an encyclopedia (ie, Google it) it would Tony Stewart's name that would come up. As great as he undisputedly is as a driver I fear for him this year with his new team. Recent history has not been kind to owner-drivers in the world of big time stock racing. Ol'DW is a good example. An example of what can happen. Or not happen. As in Darrell did not win much after forming his own team. He points to the choice he made of building his own engines as his downfall. If he had opted to stay put or at least continue leasing engines he probably would have continued his winning ways instead of suffering a rather sad end to a great career. (Earnhardt smashing him into the wall at the Winston didn't help much either. I'll write more on DW later.)

I can see Darrell taking Tony aside and warning him of the perils. Perhaps Tony would heed his words. Perhaps not. I'm thinking that part of the reason that drivers, or business people or whoever, strike out on their own is to not have to do things the way someone else wants you to do them. Wouldn't he want to call all his own shots? Granted Tony is relying on top-notch Hendrick chassis and engines so that removes those pieces from the equation. I think it comes down to time management. But then again it's not as if he's starting from scratch. Perhaps he's content to rely on or slightly modify the existing command structure, for lack of a better phrase, and focus solely or mostly on driving rather than be a racing pharaoh. I've never been an owner in any capacity but I've pestered many an owner, boss, etc for anything and everything from the critical to the trivial. I wish him well. Prove me wrong, Tony, prove me wrong.

If he does win, it doesn't necessarily mean that he's going to have a great year. He and Newman lost their primary cars on Saturday but I don't think that matters too much. These teams are professionals. They keep meticulous notes and the cars they build must be the next best thing to clones.

Ryan Newman. He did it once. No reason to think he can't do it again. New team, working for Mr. Racing. Lots of easy story lines here.

Jimmie Johnson. I only 'hate' the guy because he wins too darn much. That team is killer. You all know the stats. If he stays out of trouble, keeps his stablemates within sight and the field doesn't turn their backs on him he's a shoe-in. Boo-urns.

Jeff Gordon. Ditto. These cats have the best of everything and the talent to make the most of it. If 'hunger' means anything, Gordon will win. I'm willing to think he's ready to avenge himself to all the critics who finally had a chance last year to lay into him and his team.

Dale Earnhardt, Jr. This guy is starting to grow on me. I was never a fan of his father but, newsflash to me, he isn't his father. He runs restrictor plate races just as well as his father though. As good a chance as any front runner. His to lose.

Kyle Busch. I thought I saw a bit of over-aggressiveness in the truck race on Friday night. Talent to burn and undoubtedly more mature than last year but I think the potential is there for him to burn bridges. Still, you'd be a fool to count him out.

Carl Edwards. Flipper. On a roll. ...is this getting boring...another guy that could very easily win. The randomness of plate racing plays no favourites. For devilment I'll use Carl as an example of how you can have the driver, the car and the crew to make it a cakewalk but be clobbered by someone else's moment of inattention.

Mark Martin. He came close a few years back and who wouldn't want to see this guy win? Mark and Bill Elliot represent a previous generation and no doubt are cheered on by a segment of NASCAR fans that remember, or think they remember, a time when racing and racers were different. If this is the year Mark Martin has been given all he needs to win that elusive championship then a '500' win would be a good start. Then again, if championship is on his mind, Martin might be points racing in a race that most drivers, up until the drive home after the checkered flag, consider to be a season unto itself.

Kevin Harvick. Sneaky little bugger. Doesn't he have a knack for jumping out and grabbing these things at the very last possible moment? If he does it again on Sunday it'll be a reputation-defining moment.

Joey Lagano. I try not to write what everyone else writes but he looks like a child. Apparently he can drive. I haven't seen much from him in the few Cup races he's run and he didn't get a chance to do much in the Shootout. He did well in the 150's but, as I've said, everyone played nice. The people that call the shots don't just put anyone in their cars. Jeff Gordon tore up many a race car when he started and he did alright in the long run. He might get knocked around but what better way to learn? Let's set aside the report cards (not a knock on his age) and see what the season brings. You just might be bad mouthing a future champion.

The Dark Horses

The vagaries of restrictor plate racing put victory within the reach of some teams that might not otherwise have the chance.

Martin Truex, Jr. Huh? Dark horse? The pole sitter? Yeah. Too many other strong cars and more experienced drivers for me to say it's his to lose. I don't expect him to bust out with this race. No stats or logic behind this one. Just don't know enough about him or hear enough about him.

Bobby Labonte. Dark horse and another sentimental favourite of mine. This guy has paid his dues with Petty the past few years. It's a shame he couldn't resurrect that team but now it's time for him to get back where he belongs. Dark horse though... .

A.J. Allmendinger. As I write this, he's my top dark horse pick. If he doesn't win tomorrow, he'll win before the year is over. A lot of people in the know praise this kid.

This is way too long. I'll add more as the season rolls on but I'll learn to run sprints instead of 600-milers. I'll also be posting a '500' recap. ...no doubt to explain away my wrong predictions.